Re-examination of damage assumptions:
new assumptions at the intersection of progress and limitations.
New loss assumptions for a giant Nankai Trough earthquake have been reviewed for the first time in ten years. Although the number of fatalities in the worst-case scenario has fallen slightly from 323,000 to 298,000, this is not wishful thinking. The latest topographical data and revised evacuation rate assumptions show that the area inundated by the tsunami has increased by 30% and the number of buildings totally destroyed remains high at 2.35 million. In particular, ‘disaster-related deaths’ have been seriously estimated for the first time, with a shocking figure of up to 52,000 – 13 times higher than for the Great East Japan Earthquake.
The aspect of a ‘complex disaster’, with a chain of delayed evacuations, collapsed medical services and severed infrastructure, has become more realistic than previously thought. Economic losses will rise from 214 trillion yen to over 270 trillion yen. This is more than twice the size of the national budget, and the damage to social infrastructure, logistics and employment is unimaginable.
This assumption is quietly pushing the limits of administrative preparedness. It is not the system that is being questioned, but the will to survive. The data is cold but eloquent: ‘if we evacuate immediately, tsunami deaths will be reduced by 70%’ and ‘if we make buildings earthquake-proof, deaths from building collapse will be reduced by 80%’. But assumptions are just numbers unless they are backed up by action.
We are now at a ‘critical juncture to choose our future’. Individuals, communities, businesses and governments. No one can stand on the sidelines.
Tomorrow will be determined by today’s preparations.
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